Department of Strong Arguments

The problematic gap created by limited focused research on cognitive bias in the day-to-day work of international affairs practitioners is […]

Practitioners can’t wait for the lagging academic de-biasing research to move beyond the structured lab environment.  International Affairs Thinker had

Understanding complexity and interdependencies will help international affairs practitioners avoid overconfidence in applying narrow lessons from the past.  In the

International affairs professionals can use Taleb’s ideas on convexity and Jensen’s inequality to design an antifragile research process that performs

The primary purpose of international affairs practitioners is to support informed decision-making.  Whether advising government officials on foreign perceptions, helping

Nassim Taleb’s recent article demonstrates why traditional forecasting methods systematically underestimate extreme events, with profound implications for international affairs professionals.